25Jul
By Mahmoud El-Sayed Cairo,
The Policy Framework: Food Security as National Security Egypt’s agricultural strategy has not changed in goal — feed the people — but it has changed dramatically in method. The 2025/26 plan moves away from relying only on the Nile Valley and toward a dual-track model: intensify the old land, reclaim the desert. The budget backbone Total sector investment is targeted at EGP 144.8 billion. Of that, EGP 17.5 billion is direct public spending, while EGP 127.4 billion / $2.6 billion* is expected from the private sector. Export support was raised 55% year-on-year to EGP 28 billion / $552 million. Minister of Planning Rania Al-Mashat told parliament that agriculture and irrigation remain “a cornerstone of national food and water security and a driver of industrial growth, trade, and logistics.” The sector accounts for roughly 15% of GDP and sustains livelihoods where more than half the population lives in rural areas. Five operational pillars dominate the plan: Land Reclamation: Continue large-scale projects in Toshka, North and Central Sinai, and the New Delta. Target: exceed 21 million feddans of cropped area. Productivity Per Feddan: Raise yields 10-15% through high-yield, early-maturing, low-water crops and improved seed varieties. Modern Irrigation: Expand drip, sprinkler, and pivot systems to cover 10-18% of farmland. Improve drainage and field irrigation efficiency. Contract Farming: Scale to 1.8 million feddans. Beyond wheat and sugar, add yellow corn, cotton, and oilseeds like sunflower and soybeans to give farmers guaranteed buyers. Storage and Import Diversification: Expand wheat silo capacity to 5.5 million tons and diversify origins of wheat and corn to reduce price shocks. This is not a welfare program. It is an industrial policy for food. Budget Priorities: Where the Money Is Going Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk has tied the agricultural budget directly to the government’s wider fiscal goals: growth, competitiveness, and fiscal stability without new tax burdens. Tax facilitation last year helped raise revenues 28%, creating room for targeted spending. Export-led growth The headline target is agricultural exports exceeding $5 billion. To get there, the Agricultural Development Programme is doubling its financing portfolio to $202 million and offering foreign currency loans up to $1.5 million per project. The message to exporters: the state will de-risk you. Livestock, fisheries, and value addition The plan targets: - Adding 1 million heads of livestock - Full self-sufficiency in poultry and fish - Raising red meat self-sufficiency to 60% New milk collection centers and fish farms at Al-Burullus, Manzala, and Qarun lakes are part of this push. A critical shift is from raw commodity to agri-manufacturing. Ministers have agreed to “transform villages under Decent Life into Productive Hubs” — places that process tomatoes into paste, milk into cheese, and wheat into packaged goods, cutting post-harvest losses and capturing more value locally. Why private money matters With only 12% of the EGP 144.8bn coming from the public budget, the government is explicitly betting on investors. The logic: private capital brings technology, management, and market access that the state cannot. JICA, EU, and AFD are co-financing components, especially in Upper Egypt, to prove the model. On the Ground in the Nile Valley and Delta To understand the policy, you have to leave Cairo. In Sohag, Assiut, Qena, and Minya, smallholders farm plots often under one feddan. Their experience is the test. What farmers say is working Water efficiency: A Minya farmer in a JICA-backed project put it plainly: “We used to flood the land. Now with drip we save water and fertilizer.” Greenhouses are spreading for the same reason — more output per drop. Access to finance: For the first time, some smallholders are getting formal loans through ADP for livestock, solar pumps, and small processing units. The technical assistance bundled with the loan matters as much as the money. The Farmer Card: The digital rollout targeting 80% of landholders aims to end the era of middlemen taking a cut of subsidies. In theory, a farmer swipes a card and gets fertilizer or seed at the cooperative. New markets: Contract farming means a company guarantees to buy your maize or cotton at a set price. Export demand has also lifted prices for citrus, potatoes, and vegetables. What farmers say is failing Input inflation: Fertilizer, diesel, and animal feed prices have outpaced crop prices. “The export support is good for big companies,” a cooperative leader in Qena said. “It doesn’t reach us.” Land fragmentation: Most holdings are too small to justify drip lines or mechanization. Without cooperative farming or land consolidation, technology stays out of reach. Water stress: The Nile quota is fixed by treaty. Expanding desert agriculture means pumping groundwater or reusing drainage water. Farmers worry about salinity and long-term depletion. Implementation gaps: “We hear about new seeds on TV, but they don’t come to our village,” the Qena leader added. Extension services are understaffed and underfunded. Women farmers add another layer. They do much of the harvesting and post-harvest work, but have the least access to credit and training. ADP’s focus on women is welcomed, but scale is still limited. The Government and Partner Defense: No Other Choice Officials argue the criticisms miss the structural reality. Import dependence is dangerous. Between 2021-2023 Egypt spent $16.4 billion on food imports. With global wheat and corn prices volatile, that bill threatens the budget and the pound. Land is finite. Less than 5% of Egypt is arable. You cannot feed 112 million people, and 120 million by 2030, without going into the desert. Efficiency requires private capital. The state cannot build Toshka, New Delta, and 18 Sinai agricultural clusters alone. Private investors bring drip technology, greenhouse management, and export contracts. Early results exist. In Upper Egypt, milk centers have reduced spoilage. Solar irrigation has cut diesel costs. These are small, but they show the model can work. Macro projections back the optimism. Agricultural output is forecast at EGP 3.7 trillion in 2025/26, rising to EGP 5.7 trillion by 2028/29. Net value added should climb from EGP 2.6 trillion to EGP 4 trillion. The Criticism: Economists, NGOs, and Consumer Groups The counter-argument is not that the plan is wrong, but that it is incomplete and risks new inequalities. Budget mismatch EGP 17.5bn public spending is less than 0.5% of the total state budget. For a sector employing 18% of workers, critics say this is too low. Energy subsidies and infrastructure still absorb far more. Equity concerns Mega-projects favor companies with capital and land. A 1,000-feddan farm in the New Delta can afford pivot irrigation and export logistics. A half-feddan farmer in Minya cannot. NGOs warn this could deepen the rural-urban divide and push more youth to migrate. Environmental sustainability Desert farming relies on groundwater and energy. Environmental groups question whether drip irrigation savings can offset the energy and water cost of pumping from deep aquifers. Climate change is also making heatwaves and pests worse. Food vs. foreign exchange The $5bn export target is ambitious, but domestic prices for bread, cooking oil, and meat remain high. Consumer advocates ask: are we exporting tomatoes while Egyptians struggle to afford them? The government says exports earn dollars to buy wheat. Critics say the trade-off needs clearer rules. Governance and data Farmers cite delays, bureaucracy, and corruption in accessing subsidies. Without transparent data on who gets land and credit, trust erodes. Key Instruments Explained The Farmer Card: More than an ID. It links land data, subsidy entitlements, and bank payments. If it reaches 80% of holders as planned, it could cut leakage significantly. Protected agriculture: Greenhouses in the desert are water-efficient and allow year-round production. The state is leasing land to investors for these clusters. Seed localization: Egypt still imports much of its hybrid seed. The plan funds domestic production to reduce cost and adapt varieties to local soil and heat. Agricultural clusters in Sinai: 18 complexes are meant to integrate production, cold storage, and packaging near ports, cutting transport costs for export. Decent Life linkage: By tying agriculture to rural housing, health, and education, the government hopes to make farming attractive to youth again. The Regional and Global Context Egypt is not acting in a vacuum. Water: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and regional disputes make Nile water security a constant concern. This is why irrigation efficiency is not optional. Trade: The war in Ukraine showed how dependent Egypt is on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Diversifying import sources and expanding local wheat to 52% of cropped area is a direct response. Climate: Heat stress is reducing yields. Low-water crops and early-maturing varieties are part adaptation, part necessity. Labor: With youth unemployment high, agriculture is being rebranded — not as backbreaking labor, but as agribusiness with tech, logistics, and processing jobs. Stakeholder Perspectives Smallholder: “Give us credit without 20 papers and a guarantee. Give us a fair price at the market, not just at export.” Large investor: “We need land security, clear regulations, and foreign currency to import equipment. If those are stable, we will invest.” Cooperative leader: “The Farmer Card is good, but we need training. Farmers don’t know how to use drip properly yet.” NGO: “Include women and youth in planning. Don’t just build farms, build rural economies.” Government official: “We have 4 years to show results before 2028/29 targets. The pressure is on delivery, not just announcements.” The Outlook to 2028/29 The targets are clear: - Output: EGP 3.7 trillion → EGP 5.7 trillion - Value added: EGP 2.6 trillion → EGP 4 trillion - Cropped area: 21 million feddans - Wheat coverage: 52% of area, corn 55%, fava 39% Three things will determine success: Private investment materializes. If the $2.6bn does not come, projects stall. Institutions deliver. The Farmer Card, extension, and contract farming must work at village level. Water holds. Efficiency gains must outpace population and climate pressure. If those align, Egypt could cut its food import bill and create jobs. If not, the risk is mega-farms in the desert and persistent poverty in the Delta. CONCLUSION Egypt’s 2025/26 agriculture policy is a gamble on scale, technology, and exports. It recognizes that the old Nile model cannot feed the next generation alone. For the government, the logic is fiscal and strategic: fewer imports, more dollars, more jobs. For farmers, the logic is simpler: will my costs go down, will my income go up, will my children stay on the land? The plan has commendable parts — modern irrigation, export support, digital subsidies. It also has real gaps — smallholder access, environmental risk, and the danger that growth benefits accrue to the few. The verdict will not be written in budget tables. It will be written in Qena, in Toshka, and in the Delta. It will be written when a farmer can buy fertilizer without debt, when a young woman can run a greenhouse business, and when a family can afford bread without subsidy. Until then, the question remains: can desert and budgets feed the next generation? The answer depends on whether policy reaches the field, not just the spreadsheet
Protected agriculture and greenhouses in desert zones
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